• peter grose

Astonish your friends

Updated: Jul 31

I don't like to make rash promises, but with luck this will be my last word on the subject of Covid-19. I've created a kind of Venn diagram which will enable you to forecast, with stunning accuracy, how things are likely to go Covid-wise in your country, region, city, street or neighbourhood. Here's the diagram:

The diagram plots vaccination rate against infection rate. So there are four possibilities: 1. low vaccination, low infection; 2. low vaccination, high infection; 3. high vaccination, low infection; and 4. high vaccination, high infection. The four possibilities lead to four outcomes: 1. trouble ahead; 2. trouble already arrived; 3. we're winning (or we've already won); and 4. possible only if a new and vaccine-resistant variant is spreading.

To astonish your friends with your uncanny ability to predict how Covid will go in your chosen area, all you need to do is decide which part of the diagram best represents your place in question. Some countries - like Malta, and Iceland - have already moved themselves to square 3. Others, like Australia, are trapped in square 1 and are easing themselves into square 2. So if you're making travel plans, stick to destinations in square 3. (You don't have to go to either Malta or Iceland, there are other countries in square 3.) At worst, countries in squares 1, 2 and 4 will kill you. At best they'll lock you up for a fortnight's quarantine. Don't risk it.

And if you aren't already fully vaccinated, do it now!

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